Just Cruises Plus

Effect of Costa “Accident” on Cruising

All of the major cruise lines have experienced a moderate decline in bookings as a result of the grounding of the Costa ship off the coast of Italy.  We have noticed that we are getting fewer inquiries about Europe and more interest in Alaska, South America and the Caribbean.

The cruise lines have already committed many ships to Europe this summer based on an improving economy here in the U.S. and a decline in the Euro relative to the US Dollar.  With the grounding of the Concordia and the uncertainty regarding Iran,  Americans have become “gun shy” on Europe.  We think that this will result in an over supply of cruise ship berths in Europe, especially the Mediterranian.  Since this is a purely supply-demand business, we expect lots of deals.

In fact, Princess has started with an “Up to 2 for 1”  promotion on their European cruises.  Royal Caribbean has a 15 night cruise from Dubai for $699 (Oceanview room).

When we look at the situation objectively, we think:

1. The Costa Concordia is a very rare event and is highly unlikly to be repeated.

2. War with Iran is unlikly.

Perhaps now is the time to take advantage of the cruise line’s predicament.  Rememeber what they say on Wall Street; “buy when everyone else is selling and sell when every on else is buying.”

Ship Migration to Start Soon 

The Caribbean season is winding down and the vast majority of ships now sailing in the Caribbean will be moving to Europe and Alaska.  Celebrity and Princess will have zero ships in the Caribbean this summer.  This leaves the Caribbean to Royal Caribbean and Carnival.  Of course, the two big Royal Caribbean ships, the Allure and Oasis of the Seas will stay in the Caribbean.

Because their are fewer ships and demand is fairly high (families travel in the summer), we don’t expect any terrific deals in the Caribbean until the ships come back in October.